A Time Series Analysis of the Divorce Rate in Japan Using a Precedent-Based Index

This paper undertakes a time series analysis of the Japanese divorce rate using annual data over the period 1964 to 2006. One of the key innovations of the paper is to use court decisions on divorce disputes to construct an index that seeks to measure how the probability of a success in a divorce suit has changed over time. The computed index suggests that if it the culpable party lodging the divorce suit, the probability of the suit being successful has clearly increased over time. However, this legal change does not appear to be an important factor in explaining the rise in the Japanese divorce rate. The divorce rate appears to be counter-cyclical, and the increasing proportion of women who are regular employees appears to have increased the divorce rate.